Kalshi said it will let users bet on whether drug candidates succeed in clinical trials and whether the FDA approves them, framing the effort as a transparency-first mechanism. The prediction market exchange says the public “probability” will update based on evidence weight rather than sponsor messaging. The launch spotlights a specific use case: wagers tied to Gilead and Arcellx’s CAR-T therapy anito-cel in relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma, with an FDA decision expected in December. Kalshi also plans bets related to whether Alzheimer’s disease candidate AR1001 meets a Phase III primary endpoint. The move comes amid regulator concern over incomplete clinical result reporting to ClinicalTrials.gov, and it suggests a new channel for public-facing uncertainty tracking in drug development.